Once, in a jungle preserve in Tanzania, there were two elephant herds. One was headed by a wise old matriarch of sixty seasons. The other had a much younger matriarch who had never experienced a severe drought.  When a terrible dry season came to the preserve she kept her herd in place, trusting the water hole would not dry up. The older matriarch knew to move her herd  beyond the preserve boundaries and found a second water source. The herd that stayed suffered severe loss of numbers some literally dying of thirst.   In times of crises experience makes all the difference. This is true of elephants and among men.